Pfizer, Gilead, GSK will dominate the infectious disease market

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Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Gilead Sciences (GILD) and GSK (GSK) are in a position to control a large part of the infectious disease treatment market due to increased demand for COVID-19 drugs and HIV treatments.

That’s the assessment of analytics and consulting firm GlobalData, which estimates a CAGR for the market of 5.7% between 2023 and 2029.

The company added that the infectious disease treatment market will reach $150 billion by 2023 with three pharmacies accounting for 62% of it.

While some may be surprised to see Pfizer (PFE) have such a dominant position in infectious disease medicine given the downturn in COVID in the US and many other countries, GlobalData pharmaceutical analyst Kevin Marcaida said Comirnaty’s COVID vaccine and Paxlovoid antibiotic are still showing strong sales. He added that the planned price increase for the new version of the COVID-19 shot and events in poor countries will continue to boost sales of the two products.

Mercaida notes that Comirnaty and Paxlovid are expected to generate $122 billion in sales between 2023 and 2029.

Pfizer (PFE) is also likely to benefit from its newly approved respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, Abrysvo, in those aged 60 and over. In phase 3, drug makers have aztreonam/avibactam for infections due to Gram-negative bacteria with limited or no treatment options.

Meanwhile, Gilead (GILD) is projected to have sales growth in its infectious disease franchise of 12.4% between now and 2029 driven by sales of its HIV drug Biktarvy (bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir), which generated ~$2.7 billion in Q1 alone. It is projected to contribute $92 billion in sales between 2023 and 2029.

In the coming years, Gilead (GILD) is also likely to benefit from increased sales of its new HIV drug, Sunlenca (lenacapivir), which hit the market in January. After the initial dose, Sunlenca is given only twice a year.

In late stages, Gilead (GILD) has obeldesivir in phase 3 as a COVID therapy. For hepatitis delta virus, application is pending with the FDA for Hepcludex, and in phase 3, bulevirtide as another HDV candidate. In phase 2, Gilead (GILD) has selgantolimod as a potential hepatitis B drug.

GSK (GSK), meanwhile, will especially benefit from two treatments: the Shingrix shingles vaccine and the HIV drug Dovato (dolutegravir/lamivudine). The former is projected to generate $4 billion in total sales between 2023 and 2029, according to Global Data.

Dovato is made by ViiV Healthcare, of which GSK (GSK) is the majority owner. HIV drugs are projected to generate $20 billion during the period.

Like Pfizer (PFE), GSK (GSK) will also benefit from the recent CDC-backed sales of its RSV vaccine. While the recommendation from the CDC is for those 60 and over, the shot is likely to gain approval for other demographics in the coming years.

In late stages, the British drugmaker also has gepotidacin for urinary tract infections and gonorrhea; bepirovirsen for chronic hepatitis B; and tebipenem pivoxilv for UTIs.

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